Scientists from the American organization Climate Central released an alarming study that reveals a significant increase in global temperatures over the last 12 months. According to the research, the planet became 1.32°C warmer compared to the levels of the pre-industrial era (1850-1900), highlighting a worrying warming trend.
The increase, calculated based on measurements of air temperatures from November 2022 to October 2023 around the world, is mainly attributed to excess greenhouse gases from human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels. Scientists warn that as long as these practices persist, the impacts will continue to intensify and spread.
The research also highlighted the influence of reducing emissions of aerosol polluting gases that cause cooling, in addition to highlighting that the impact of the El Niño phenomenon is still smaller compared to the effects of greenhouse gases. The record increase surpassed the period from October 2015 to September 2016, when the global temperature was 1.29 °C warmer.
Scientists used the Climate Change Index (CSI) to quantify how climate change has altered the likelihood of extreme heat occurring. Between November 2022 and April 2023, 58% of the world's population was exposed to 10 or more days with high temperatures with a CSI level of 3, indicating that heat waves on these days were at least three times more likely due to climate change. This percentage increased to 82% between May and October.
The distribution of climate impacts was highlighted in the study, showing that countries least responsible for emissions suffer most intensely. While small island developing countries had an average CSI of 2.7, the G20, which brings together the 20 largest world economies, had an average of 0.8.
However, research points out that even the most developed countries are experiencing an increase in the effects of climate change. Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Mexico were the only G20 countries with an average CSI greater than 1 between November and April, with other countries including India, Italy, Japan, Brazil, France and Turkey joining that list between May and October.
When analyzing data from large cities, it is observed that Manaus (AM) leads with an average CSI of 5, showing persistent heat waves. The 10 cities with the longest heatwaves over the 12 months also had an average CSI of 5, with Houston (USA) experiencing extreme temperatures for 22 consecutive days.
Furthermore, the article presents a retrospective of extreme events in the last year, highlighting impacts in the United States, Argentina, Amazonas, Panama Canal, Ghana, Horn of Africa, Canada and Italy. These events included droughts, floods, forest fires and heat waves, highlighting the breadth of the impacts of the climate crisis in different regions of the world.
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