In a worrying warning, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) released the 2023 Production Gap Report, revealing that global governments' fossil fuel production plans for 2030 exceed the targets set by the Paris Agreement by 110%. The agreement seeks to limit global warming to 1.5ºC in relation to pre-industrial levels, but current projections put the achievement of even the 2ºC target at risk.
According to the report, planned coal production until 2030 and oil and gas production until at least 2050 are at odds with established climate commitments and environmental needs. UNEP executive director Inger Andersen highlighted that such plans compromise the energy transition necessary to achieve the goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions, in addition to creating significant economic risks.
The report also assessed the climate goals of the 20 largest fossil fuel producers, revealing that, although 17 of them have committed to net zero emissions, none have targets compatible with the 1.5ºC objective. The list includes countries such as China, the United States, Brazil and Russia, responsible for 82% of production and 73% of global consumption of these fuels.
Amid calls for the phase-out of coal, oil and gas, the report highlights the urgency of acting in the face of the climate emergency. It proposes the elimination of coal production by 2040 and a reduction of at least 75% in combined oil and gas production by 2050, compared to 2020 levels. The text emphasizes that countries with greater energy transition capacity must lead more ambitious goals, helping in the transition of nations with limited resources.
The report also mentions that 2023 recorded extreme weather events, highlighting the severity of climate change. The month of July was the hottest on record, with heatwaves, droughts, wildfires and floods affecting millions of people. However, global CO2 emissions, mainly from fossil fuels, reached record levels between 2021 and 2022.
Despite the concerns, the report highlights that 34 countries, including major producers such as Germany, Canada, China and Indonesia, have committed to ending public financing for unabated fossil fuels, redirecting investments to clean energy. However, doubts persist about the definition of “not slaughtered”, calling into question the effectiveness of the measure.
The document highlights the need for COP28, the next UN Climate Conference, to make a global commitment to the gradual elimination of fossil fuels, recognizing the crucial role of producing countries in the planned and equitable transition to face the climate crisis.
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