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Challenges and Transformations in Global Energy: from Fossil Fuel Consumption to the Rise of Renewable Sources

O Energy Institute, headquartered in the UK, took responsibility for publishing the World Energy Statistical Review, previously released by BP Plc. For nearly seven decades, this report has been a vital source of comprehensive data, providing information on hydrocarbon stocks, flows and combustion, as well as data on power generation and prices of key metals for the energy transition, such as cobalt and lithium.

The importance of this report goes further, as it provides a comprehensive view of the energy production process, as well as a crucial step in assessing the performance of energy systems. For seasoned analysts in the field of energy and climate, the report remains essential reading, providing valuable insight into the industry and global energy trends.

Global primary energy consumption hit an all-time high last year at over 600 exajoules. This is double the world's energy consumption in 1985 and four times the 1965 level, when Statistical Review data begin. The world's demand for energy is increasing, but it's a split screen in terms of economics. Demand in OECD countries has fallen by 3.4% in absolute terms since 2007, while it has grown almost non-stop in the rest of the world at the same time.

In relative terms, the OECD's role in global energy demand continues to decline, albeit slowly. In 2007, it accounted for just under half of total energy consumption; today, it is less than 39%. The critical questions for the future of energy are how much this demand can decline in the long term and how quickly non-OECD countries can reach their own collective peak.

Demand for fossil fuels continues to grow globally, with record levels of coal and gas consumption being recorded. Among fossil fuels, oil maintains its dominant position over time. In 1965, it was already the most consumed fossil energy source, and this trend persisted almost seven decades later, in 2022, consolidating its position as the most demanded fossil fuel.

Global energy consumption from oil, coal and gas has seen a significant increase from 2011 to last year. Among these fossil fuels, gas showed the largest increase, followed by oil, which accounted for about two-thirds of the total increase in gas. Third, there is coal, which contributed approximately one-third of this increase. These numbers reflect a growing dependence on fossil fuels, pointing to additional challenges in transitioning to more sustainable energy sources.

The dynamics of the natural gas trade are undergoing significant changes, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) assuming an increasingly important role. For decades, pipelines dominated interregional gas trade, but since 2020, LNG has led the way in terms of total volume. This shift is driven by several factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and restrictions placed by Russia on exports from its pipelines. Furthermore, the growing US-led LNG trade is also contributing to this trend. It is possible that this transformation in the natural gas market will continue in the coming years, changing the geopolitical and economic dynamics of the global energy sector.

The composition of the global energy matrix has undergone significant transformations over the decades. Sixty years ago, hydroelectric power accounted for a staggering 95% of the zero-emission electrons generated worldwide. However, as the century progressed, hydropower's share dwindled to 47.2%, while nuclear power, by a small margin, overtook it, accounting for 48.6% of the total. This shift in leadership of clean energy sources reflects the different approaches countries are taking in the quest for more sustainable electricity and underscores the growing importance of nuclear energy as a low-carbon alternative.

The renewable energy sector, in addition to hydropower, has seen impressive growth year on year. From 2021 to 2022, non-hydro renewable generation increased by more than 500 terawatt hours, a significant mark that equals all the electricity consumed by France throughout the year 2022. This impressive number also approximates the energy consumption of Germany , highlighting the rapid advance of renewable sources in the global energy matrix. These data indicate a clear push towards a more sustainable energy transition, driven by increased generation capacity from wind, solar and other clean sources in different parts of the world.

The future of energy faces significant challenges, and it is essential to understand the extent to which global demand can decline over time and how non-OECD countries can reach peak consumption. These issues are fundamental for global energy sustainability and for the search for solutions that balance economic growth with environmental preservation.

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This content was originally created in Portuguese.

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