The next 28th Conference of the Parties (COP 28) The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Dubai is set to begin without the presence of two important global leaders: President Joe Biden of the United States and President Xi Jinping of China. This unexpected turn of events, according to sources close to the United States government, indicates a significant change from the previous two years, in which Biden actively participated in international climate conferences.
The absence of Biden and Xi Jinping is surprising considering the United States' ongoing efforts to establish itself as a leader in sustainability and climate action. President Biden, who has made climate change a focal point of his domestic policy through initiatives such as the Reducing Inflation Act, appears to be deviating from the trend of active participation in global climate discussions.
Although no official announcement has been made about Biden's absence, sources indicate that the United States delegation, which is preparing for the annual climate talks, has been advised not to expect the president to be present. President Biden's official schedule apparently includes commitments only until Thursday, with no indication of his presence at COP 28.
In response to questions about the president's presence, White House spokesman Angelo Fernandez Hernandez said: “While we have no travel updates to share from the president at this time, the administration looks forward to a robust and productive COP28.”
With President Biden absent, the responsibility for leading the US delegation during the daily negotiations falls to John Kerry, the US Special Climate Envoy. Kerry, a former Secretary of State and senator, will play a key role in shaping the American stance during climate talks.
President Biden's decision not to participate in COP 28 comes at a time when he is intensely focused on addressing the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Furthermore, with less than a year until the next presidential election, Biden is actively managing his domestic agenda.
The global summit, scheduled for the first days of COP 28, is expected to welcome approximately 70,000 participants, including world leaders such as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak and French President Emmanuel Macron, who have already confirmed their presence. However, the absence of the leaders of the two largest carbon emitters, the United States and China, raises questions about the potential impact on the conference results and the ability to reach meaningful climate commitments on a global scale.
Conference in Dubai Will Seek Urgent Solutions to Address the Climate Crisis
With global temperatures reaching alarming levels and extreme weather events impacting communities around the world, COP28, the UN Conference on Climate Change, emerges as a fundamental event to reorient the trajectory and intensify actions in the face of the climate crisis. Scheduled to take place in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from November 30th to December 12th this year, COP28 will be a decisive platform to assess the progress of the Paris Agreement, established in 2015, and establish concrete strategies aimed at significantly reducing emissions and the protection of lives and livelihoods.
The consensus in the scientific community is unequivocal: in order to preserve a livable climate, it is imperative that coal, oil and gas production be drastically reduced. At the same time, global renewable energy capacity, including sources such as wind, solar, hydro and geothermal, is expected to triple by 2030. At the same time, a significant leap in financing for adaptation and investments in climate resilience is needed.
COP28 in Dubai will bring together government and business leaders, NGO representatives and civil society to seek concrete solutions to the pressing challenge that defines our time. In a scenario in which climate challenges persist and intensify since the Stockholm Conference in 1972, COP28 faces the arduous task of reversing the current scenario.
The last summit, held in Egypt in 2022, was marked by the creation of the loss and damage fund, aimed at countries especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. However, COP28 faces the challenge of determining those responsible for financing this fund, in addition to resolving the outstanding amount of 100 billion dollars per year not paid to developing countries, established at COP15 14 years ago. As COP28 approaches, expectations turn to the ability of world leaders to overcome divergent interests and adopt bold measures to ensure the planet's sustainability. Between emissions reductions and the search for net emissions, mitigation, adaptation and social and climate justice policies will be crucial to preserving living conditions and habitability on our planet. Check out the main topics to be covered at COP28 in Dubai below:4
- Rapid Response to the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement in the Antechamber of COP28
The Global Assessment of the Paris Agreement, recently concluded with the publication of the summary report in September 2023, sets the stage for an important moment at COP28. The conference will be a stage for countries to recognize gaps in actions and financing to date, highlight progress and outline collective next steps. The commitments resulting from the Global Stocktake, to be presented at COP28, must cover crucial areas such as mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, financing and assistance, especially in sectors such as energy, transport, food and land use.
At COP28, countries are expected to agree overarching targets in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), including all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These targets must be ambitious enough to achieve the necessary global emissions reductions this decade, aiming to keep the rise in temperatures below 1.5°C, an upper limit to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the response to the Global Assessment must establish processes to continue and achieve the goals by 2025, including dialogues for the development of new NDCs, with national and regional consultations throughout 2024 to enrich the debate and drive more ambitious commitments.
- The Implementation of the Loss and Damage Fund
A recent study warned of the devastating economic impacts of climate disasters, totaling US$ 2.8 trillion between 2000 and 2019, with an annual average of US$ 143 billion. The human, economic and environmental costs of climate change are expected to increase, even with efforts to stabilize emissions. Given this scenario, COP28 seeks urgent decisions to help communities adapt and support those facing significant losses.
At the center of the discussions is the implementation of the Loss and Damage Fund, the result of fierce negotiations at COP27. The choice of headquarters, relationship with the UNFCCC, country contributions and eligibility criteria are critical points to be addressed. The recent meeting of the Transitional Loss and Damage Committee in October 2023 ended with disagreements, signaling imminent challenges for COP28, especially if the financing demands of developing countries are not adequately considered.
In addition to the Fund, COP28 faces the need to define the host institution for the Santiago Network on Loss and Damage, established in 2019. The Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) and the United Nations Office for Risk Reduction Disaster Management (UNDRR), in collaboration with the United Nations Office for Project Services, are evaluating a joint proposal to resolve this impasse.
Another important front is the advancement of the structure of the Global Adaptation Goal, with a focus on expanding financing for adaptation. At COP28, countries seek to operationalize the Global Adaptation Goal to monitor progress, strengthening actions and balancing efforts between mitigation and adaptation. The goal structure should guarantee greater autonomy for local communities, based on the Principles for Locally Led Adaptation, promoting faster, broader and more equitable implementation.
The COP28 negotiations aim for an initial agreement for countries to establish goals at all stages of the adaptation political cycle, covering food insecurity, health, infrastructure and cross-cutting issues such as gender, intergenerational equity and knowledge of Indigenous Peoples. Determining metrics for evaluating and reporting adaptation actions is equally fundamental to effectively addressing the challenges of climate change.
- Growing Challenges in Global Climate Finance
To achieve ambitious climate goals, COP28 seeks to boost an annual climate finance flow of US$4.3 trillion by 2030. Negotiations face the need to deliver on existing commitments and lay the foundations for a new post-2025 global target.
Fulfill Current Commitments and Establish New Goals: In 2009, developed countries agreed to generate US$ 100 billion annually by 2020, extended to 2025, to assist in the mitigation and adaptation of developing nations. However, progress has been insufficient. COP28 urges rich countries to fill the financing gap by ensuring rapid access to quality funds. Recent commitments to reach the target in 2023 must be backed up with concrete actions.
At COP26, countries committed to doubling financing for adaptation by 2025. The Standing Committee on Financing assesses current trends to align with this goal, focusing on private sector participation in adaptive financing. COP28 needs to lay the groundwork for a new post-2025 target, succeeding the US$ 100 billion, with discussions on the period covered, monitoring, progress reporting and relationship to loss and damage.
The Article 2.1(c) Challenge and Financial Responsibilities: Article 2.1(c) of the Paris Agreement aims to align financial flows with resilient, low-carbon development. Defining this alignment, considering national diversities, is a pending challenge. Questions about the relationship between Article 2.1(c) and the responsibility of developed countries (Article 9) are central. Developing countries seek to ensure that financing flows do not exempt developed countries from their financial obligations. COP28 can bring clarity on the inclusion of Article 2.1(c) on the agenda and in the Global Assessment.
International Financial Institutions and Global Collaboration: COP27 urged multilateral banks to reform practices in line with the Paris Agreement. COP28 highlights the importance of international financial institutions aligning their financing flows with climate objectives. After meetings of the World Bank and the IMF, the need for collaboration, increased financial capacity and alignment with the Paris Agreement are highlighted. The challenge of avoiding increases in debt, especially in developing countries, remains at the center of discussions. COP28 seeks to drive more robust and sustainable collaboration to address global financial challenges.
- Comprehensive Transformations to Address the Climate Crisis
COP28's approach to solving the climate crisis highlights the pressing need to fully transform global systems and sectors. Focusing on three vital areas, the conference seeks significant advances.
– Ending the Fossil Fuel Era: The central debate at COP28 revolves around the role of fossil fuels in the climate crisis. Following calls at COP26 to phase out coal and proposals from more than 80 countries at COP27, the main issue now is the “phase down” or “phase out” of these fuels. The result should lead to a rapid transition, with an emphasis on the implementation of renewable energy, fuel replacement and fleet electrification. The use of carbon capture technologies must be limited and strategically applied.
– Transformation in Global Food and Land Use Systems: COP28 explicitly recognizes the critical interconnection between the food and land use sector and the climate crisis. The Global Stocktake provides an opportunity to advance this agenda, in line with the UAE Declaration on Resilient Food Systems. The Sharm el-Sheikh Joint Work highlights the need to adopt a comprehensive approach, considering sustainable production methods, healthy diets and reducing food waste.
– Strategic Partnerships for Local Climate Action: For the first time, COP28 promotes a Local Climate Action Conference, recognizing the importance of cities. Responsible for 70% of global CO2 emissions, cities are fundamental in combating climate change. Collaboration between national governments and cities is essential, and the conference provides a platform to coordinate efforts. Incorporating subnational actors into NDCs, establishing national policies and expanding financing are crucial steps. Cities need to improve transparency and increase the ambition of their local goals, ensuring effective transformation in shared systems such as transport, buildings and land use.
What will Brazil bring to the COP?
Brazil's participation in the Conference of the Parties (COP) 28, which will take place in Dubai between November 30 and December 3, promises to mark a significant chapter in the history of climate negotiations. With a record delegation of 12 state ministers, including the Minister of the Environment, Marina Silva, and the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, as well as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil seeks to consolidate its leading role in environmental issues.
Ambassador André Aranha, Secretary of Climate, Energy and Environment at Itamaraty, highlighted during a press conference the intention to accommodate as many participants as possible in the delegation, emphasizing the diversity of sectors represented. He highlighted the importance of including not only members of the government, but also businesspeople, scientists, activists and politicians, an approach that seeks to integrate different perspectives in the search for environmental solutions.
Amid expectations of the largest Brazilian delegation at a COP, the ambassador shared his previous experience at climate conferences, mentioning the culture of inclusion that characterized Brazilian delegations. He expressed his admiration for the integration of diverse sectors, such as business, scientists and local government, recognizing the crucial role that each plays in building a comprehensive approach to environmental challenges.
The central focus of Brazil's participation in COP 28 is to consolidate itself as a global leader on environmental issues. Since the beginning of his term, President Lula has reiterated his commitment to the environment, highlighting the need for Brazil to take a prominent position in debates on climate change. The choice of Minister Marina Silva to lead the Ministry of the Environment reflects this commitment, given her history and commitment to defending sustainability.
In anticipation of the conference, Minister Marina Silva shared Brazil's objectives, highlighting the commitment to limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5°C. Furthermore, she emphasized the need to allocate resources to an agenda to repair losses and damages and promote a fair energy transition, with a focus on developing countries. These commitments reflect Brazil's search for comprehensive and equitable solutions to climate challenges.
The Brazilian government released a note reaffirming its commitment to leading by example, citing the significant reduction in deforestation in the Amazon in the first ten months of 2023, a drop of 49.5% compared to the same period of the previous year. Furthermore, Brazil highlights the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, associated with the reduction in deforestation, and the country's energy matrix, made up of 48% of renewable sources.
Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago emphasized the importance of bringing science to discussions, highlighting the diversity of paths that a developing country can take in an attempt to face climate effects. This evidence-based approach aims to present sustainable and realistic alternatives to climate challenges, recognizing the complexity of environmental issues.
As Brazil prepares for COP 28, the global expectation is that the country will take a leading role in the search for effective and equitable solutions to climate challenges. The diversity of the delegation and the announced commitments reflect Brazil's ambition to contribute significantly to the global environmental debate and establish itself as a positive reference in the fight against climate change.
